‘Drive-off’ fuel thefts cost $80 million even before the war – and they’re heading up

Written by The Conversation

With petrol and diesel prices soaring, we’re hearing more reports of alleged fuel thefts from petrol stations, farms, trucks and even parked cars.

Australasian Convenience and Petroleum Marketers Association’s chief executive officer Rowan Lee told AAP this week that fuel theft from service stations had increased by between 8–30% nationally since the start of the Middle East war. Even before the conflict began, fuel theft was costing retailers around A$80 million a year.

Police in several states have warned they expect more thefts to come.

Here’s how past surges in fuel prices have driven up “drive-off” thefts, how common such thefts are – and what to do if you see one happening.

Predicting fuel thefts from petrol prices

There is good evidence, both from Australia and overseas, that fuel price spikes do drive up fuel thefts.

A report by the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research compared eight years of service station fraud – largely fuel theft – from 1998 to 2006 against the average monthly price of petrol in Sydney.

It found “a strong correlation” between higher petrol prices and the increase in petrol theft.

A chart showing how petrol prices and petrol thefts rose over eight years

The relationship between petrol theft and petrol prices, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, September 2006. For every 10 cent increase in the price of a litre of petrol at the time, the report estimated: we can expect up to 120 extra reported incidents of service station fraud for that month in NSW. The researchers also found “service station fraud in any given month can be predicted from the average price of petrol one month earlier”. ‘Significant’ links between price spikes and theft More recent studies have been done overseas. For instance, a 2023 study of English and Welsh fuel thefts found that when petrol prices were relatively stable, fuel cost changes had little impact on petrol thefts. But sudden surges in higher fuel prices – like the kind we’re seeing now in response to the Middle East war – were found to be “significantly associated” with higher levels of the crime. Another UK study looked at the relationship between the price of commodity goods, like fuel, and levels of related crime. It found a “positive crime-price elasticity” for fuel – meaning if the price of fuel went up, so did the theft of fuel. Similarly, a 2015 German study found that the fuel price had a statistically significant effect in increasing fuel theft. How common in petrol theft? The available data on fuel drive-offs across Australia is patchy, varying state by state. Last week, South Australian police reported a 37% jump in fuel thefts: 221 fuel thefts in the week ending March 15, up from 162 the week before. As the state’s Police Commissioner Grant Stevens said: A substantial number of people — 97 — have done it [for] what we would describe as the first time. That’s a significant increase in the rate of first offenders. Stevens also warned his officers may have to stop investigating drive-off thefts at service stations, unless pre-paid pumps were urgently introduced to stop the “completely preventable” crime. The rate of fuel theft varies over time, as well as by state. In NSW, figures provided to The Conversation by the state’s Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research show “fail-to-pay” drive-offs have risen over the past decade, up from 9,097 in 2016 to 13,423 to the end of 2025, after a peak of 15,326 in 2024. In the 2018-19 financial year Queensland police data recorded around 27,800 fuel drive-off offences: about 76 per day. In mid-2025, that was down to 61 thefts a day. That put the state on track to record roughly 22,300 fuel drive offs by the end of the year. From texts to fines or even jail time Facing tens of thousands of drive-offs, seven years ago Queensland Police came up with a novel response: texting or emailing drivers suspected of drive-off thefts. Those messages say to contact the service station and pay immediately, or face a fine and potential criminal prosecution. When first trialled in 2019, initial reports showed that of the 4,723 messages Queensland Police sent, 2,190 drivers went back to the station to pay for their fuel. In many states, the maximum penalty for fuel theft can be five to ten years in jail. However, someone engaging in a fuel drive-off for personal use is much more likely to be fined. Factors such at the criminal history of the offender, how many offences were committed and the nature of the offending would also determine the outcome. Different states prosecute the crime differently. For instance, in NSW a drive-off offence is typically prosecuted as “fraud”, not theft, because the fuel was voluntarily provided by the station – and the thief has then dishonestly taken it without paying. How do you report petrol theft? If you see a petrol theft happening and it could be dangerous, most police services across Australia recommend calling Triple Zero (000). But when the offence has already happened and the thief has gone, retailers or others are encouraged to report the theft online. Police in some states, including NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, have dedicated websites on reporting fuel drive-offs. Given the evidence about fuel price spikes leading to more fuel drive-offs, the longer this Middle East war drags on, the more we’re likely to hear from police about the need to do more about rising theft.

Predicting fuel thefts from petrol prices

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